Democrat Mary Peltola holds a slim first-choice lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, but ranked-choice voting means the race will stay undecided for weeks.
A razor-thin first-choice lead
With about three-quarters of expected ballots counted Wednesday, Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 626 first-choice votes, according to ABC News, CBS News and Alaska Public Media.
- Peltola: 102,701 votes (48.2%)
- Sullivan: 102,075 votes (47.9%)
- Expected vote reporting: about 74%
Neither candidate cleared 50% of first-choice support. Under Alaska law, the state will use ranked-choice voting once remaining ballots are in. Ranked-choice voting lets voters rank candidates in order of preference; lower-finishing candidates are eliminated round by round until someone wins.
The Alaska Division of Elections says ranked-choice results will not be available until Nov. 18, after eligible ballots are reviewed and counted.
Why the wait is long
Alaska’s count is slow by design. Early, absentee and questioned ballots are still coming in. The Alaska Beacon reported Wednesday that tens of thousands may still need to be counted.
Peltola told reporters early Wednesday the results “are not going to be fast.”
“But Alaskans are patient,” she said, according to CBS News. “We just want to make sure the folks [in] the Lower 48 know it won’t be hours, it won’t be days, it will be weeks.”
Sullivan told supporters that “we’re going to have a long night” and that they were “probably going to have some long weeks,” CBS News reported. On election night he also said he was confident he would return to the Senate “when all the votes are counted,” according to Alaska Public Media.
What ranked-choice could change
A preliminary Alaska Beacon analysis of the cast vote record Wednesday suggested Sullivan could gain more redistributed votes than Peltola if lower-finishing candidates are eliminated — including independent Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and Republican Gerald Heikes.
Caveats apply: many Election Day and uncounted absentee ballots are not in the file yet, and rural precincts that often favor Peltola are underrepresented so far.
Republicans have argued that the similar names of Sen. Dan Sullivan and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. confused voters. A federal judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit on that issue before Election Day; the department is appealing. Peltola has denied knowledge of any plan to recruit a spoiler candidate. The Beacon’s early review found little sign of widespread name confusion on ballots counted so far.
What it means in Washington
Democrats have already secured a Senate majority for next year, according to CBS News projections. Alaska cannot decide control. A Peltola win would widen the Democratic edge; a Sullivan win would limit further Republican losses. Mississippi’s Senate race also remained unresolved Wednesday.
Both campaigns say they will wait for every valid ballot. Alaskans will not see a ranked-choice winner until mid-November at the earliest.
Sources: CBS News, Alaska Beacon, Alaska Public Media, Alaska Division of Elections, ABC News, CBS Evening News on X
