Maine’s U.S. Senate contest could help decide who controls Congress, and ranked-choice rules mean the winner might not be clear Tuesday night.
Why this race matters
Voters across Maine are casting ballots Tuesday in a U.S. Senate race both parties treat as a national prize.
Republican Sen. Susan Collins, seeking a sixth term, is the only Senate Republican representing a state President Donald Trump lost in 2024. Democrat Troy Jackson, a former Maine Senate president and fifth-generation logger, entered late after the prior Democratic nominee withdrew amid scandal.
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the chamber. ABC News rates Maine a tossup. Whichever party wins the Senate will shape the final two years of Trump’s term — including how far Democrats could go to slow or investigate his agenda.
What each side says
Collins presents herself as a pragmatic dealmaker who brings federal money home. In a Nov. 1 post on X, she highlighted nearly $1.5 billion she said she secured for 672 local projects across all 16 Maine counties through appropriations bills over five years, and pointed to upgrades for first-responder facilities. ABC News notes she also stresses her seniority as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee and her willingness to break with her party at times.
Jackson frames the race as a working-class push against Washington. On Election Day morning on X he wrote, “Happy Election Day Maine! Let’s go win this thing!” A day earlier he said he owes “the people of Maine everything,” not “Washington, Donald Trump, or the billionaires.” He has accused Collins of paving the way for the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade by casting the deciding vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Former President Barack Obama endorsed Jackson on Nov. 2, calling him a fighter for working families.
Votes already cast — and a possible wait
Maine Public reports more than 300,000 people — nearly a third of registered voters — had already voted as of Monday evening. Most polling places are open from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. ET.
A final University of New Hampshire Pine Tree State Poll, reported by WMTW, found 54% of likely voters backing Jackson and 45% backing Collins. Even so, 56% of those surveyed expected Collins to win. Maine Public cited Ad Impact data putting October Senate ad spending in the state above $80 million.
Maine uses ranked-choice voting in federal races when more than two candidates appear. With six declared write-in candidates, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows told USA TODAY a runoff is “highly possible” if no one clears 50% of first-choice votes. That count could stretch toward Friday, Nov. 13.
What it means for you
If you live in Maine, check your town’s hours and plan for lines. If you live elsewhere, watch Maine tonight — and possibly into next week — for what it signals about control of Congress.
Sources: ABC News; Maine Public; WMTW / UNH Pine Tree State Poll; USA TODAY; NBC News Maine results; Troy Jackson on X, Nov. 3; Troy Jackson on X, Nov. 2; Sen. Susan Collins on X, Nov. 1; Barack Obama on X, Nov. 2
